1. Kwishyuza ibirundo nibikoresho byongera ingufu kubinyabiziga bishya byingufu, kandi hariho itandukaniro mumajyambere mugihugu ndetse no mumahanga
1.1.Ikirundo cyumuriro nigikoresho cyongera ingufu kubinyabiziga bishya byingufu
Ikirundo cyo kwishyiriraho ni igikoresho cyimodoka nshya zongerera ingufu amashanyarazi.Nibinyabiziga bishya byingufu icyo sitasiyo ya lisansi ari iyo gutwara ibinyabiziga.Imiterere n'imikoreshereze y'ibikoresho byo kwishyuza biroroshye guhinduka kuruta sitasiyo ya lisansi, kandi ubwoko nabwo bukize.Ukurikije ifishi yo kwishyiriraho, irashobora kugabanwa mubirundo byubatswe hejuru yurukuta, ibirundo byo kwishyiriraho vertical, ibirundo byo kwishyiriraho mobile, nibindi, bikwiranye nuburyo butandukanye bwurubuga;
Ukurikije ibyiciro byerekana imikoreshereze, irashobora kugabanywamo ibirundo byo kwishyiriraho rubanda, ibirundo bidasanzwe byo kwishyuza, ibirundo byishyuza byigenga, nibindi. isosiyete ikirundo, mugihe ibirundo byishyurwa byigenga byashyizwe mubirundo byigenga.Ahantu haparika, ntabwo hafunguye abantu;
Ukurikije ibyiciro byumuvuduko wo kwishyuza (imbaraga zo kwishyuza), birashobora kugabanywamo ibirundo byihuta byihuta hamwe nibirindiro byoroheje;ukurikije ibyiciro bya tekinoroji yo kwishyuza, irashobora kugabanywamo ibice byo kwishyuza DC hamwe n’ibirundo bya AC.Muri rusange, ibirundo bya DC byo kwishyiriraho bifite imbaraga zo kwishyuza byihuse kandi byihuta byo kwishyuza, mugihe ibirundo bya AC byishyuza buhoro.
Muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika, ibirundo byo kwishyuza mubisanzwe bigabanijwe mubice bitandukanye ukurikije imbaraga, murirwo rwego rwa 1 naUrwego 2mubisanzwe ni ibirundo bya AC byishyuza, bikwiranye nibinyabiziga byose bishya byingufu, mugihe kwishyuza byihuse ntibikwiye kubinyabiziga byose bishya byingufu, kandi ubwoko butandukanye bukomoka kuburinganire butandukanye nka J1772, CHAdeMO, Tesla, nibindi.
Kugeza ubu, nta bipimo byuzuye byo kwishyuza byuzuye kwisi.Ibipimo ngenderwaho nyamukuru birimo Ubushinwa GB / T, CHAOmedo y’Ubuyapani, IEC 62196 y’umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi, SAE J1772 yo muri Amerika, na IEC 62196.
1.2.Ubwiyongere bw'imodoka nshya zingufu nubufasha bwa politiki butera iterambere rirambye ryibirundo byishyuza mugihugu cyanjye
uruganda rwanjye rushya rwimodoka zingufu ziratera imbere byihuse.ibinyabiziga bishya by’igihugu cyanjye bikomeje gutera imbere, cyane cyane guhera mu 2020, igipimo cy’imodoka z’ingufu nshya cyiyongereye vuba, kandi mu 2022 umuvuduko w’ibinyabiziga bishya by’ingufu urenga 25%.Umubare wibinyabiziga bishya byingufu nabyo bizakomeza kwiyongera.Nk’uko imibare ya Minisiteri y’umutekano rusange ibigaragaza, umubare w’ibinyabiziga bishya by’ingufu ku mubare rusange w’ibinyabiziga mu 2022 bizagera kuri 4.1%.
Leta yatanze politiki nyinshi zo gushyigikira iterambere ry’inganda zishyuza.Kugurisha no gutunga ibinyabiziga bishya byingufu mu gihugu cyanjye bikomeje kwiyongera, kandi, n’uburyo, ibikoresho byo kwishyuza bikomeje kwiyongera.Ni muri urwo rwego, Leta n’inzego z’ibanze bireba batanze politiki nyinshi zo guteza imbere cyane iterambere ry’inganda zishyuza ibirundo, harimo inkunga ya politiki n’ubuyobozi, inkunga z’amafaranga, n’intego z’ubwubatsi.
Hamwe no kwiyongera kwimodoka nshya zingufu no gushimangira politiki, umubare wibirundo byishyuza mugihugu cyanjye ukomeje kwiyongera.Kugeza muri Mata 2023, umubare w’ibirundo byo kwishyuza mu gihugu cyanjye ni miliyoni 6.092.Muri byo, umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa byiyongereyeho 52% umwaka ushize ugera kuri miliyoni 2.025, muri byo ibirundo byo kwishyuza DC bingana na 42% naAmashanyarazi ya ACbingana na 58%.Kubera ko ibirundo byigenga byishyiriraho bisanzwe hamwe nibinyabiziga, ubwiyongere bwa nyirubwite burakomeye.Byihuse, hamwe numwaka-mwaka wiyongereyeho 104% kugeza kuri miliyoni 4.067.
Ikigereranyo cy’ibinyabiziga n’ikirundo mu gihugu cyanjye ni 2.5: 1, muri byo ikigereranyo rusange cy’imodoka n’ikirundo ni 7.3: 1.Ikigereranyo cyibinyabiziga-kurunda, ni ukuvuga igipimo cyimodoka nshya zingufu hamwe no kwishyuza ibirundo.Urebye kubarura, mu mpera za 2022, igipimo cy’ibinyabiziga n’ibirundo mu gihugu cyanjye kizaba 2.5: 1, kandi icyerekezo rusange kigenda kigabanuka gahoro gahoro, ni ukuvuga ko ibikoresho byo kwishyuza ibinyabiziga bishya by’ingufu bihora bitezwa imbere.Muri byo, ikigereranyo cy’imodoka rusange n’ibirundo ni 7.3: 1, cyagiye cyiyongera buhoro buhoro kuva mu mpera za 2020. Impamvu ni uko igurishwa ry’imodoka nshya z’ingufu ryazamutse vuba kandi umuvuduko w’ubwiyongere urenze iyubakwa ry’ubwishyu rusange. ibirundo;ikigereranyo cyibinyabiziga byigenga nibirundo ni 3.8: 1, byerekana kugabanuka gahoro gahoro.Icyerekezo ahanini giterwa nimpamvu nko guteza imbere neza politiki yigihugu yo guteza imbere iyubakwa ry’ibirundo by’abikorera ku giti cyabo.
Ku bijyanye no gusenyuka kw'ibirundo rusange byishyurwa rusange, umubare w’ibirundo rusange bya DC: umubare w’ibirundo rusange bya AC ≈ 4: 6, bityo rero ikigereranyo cy’ibirundo rusange DC ni 17.2: 1, kikaba kiri hejuru y’ikigereranyo cya AC rusange ibirundo bya 12.6: 1.
Ikigereranyo cyimodoka igenda-ikirundo yerekana intambwe igenda itera imbere muri rusange.Duhereye ku buryo bwiyongera, kubera ko ibirundo bishya byo kwishyuza buri kwezi, cyane cyane ibirundo bishya byishyuza rusange, bidafitanye isano rya bugufi no kugurisha ibinyabiziga bishya by’ingufu, bifite ihindagurika rinini kandi biganisha ku ihindagurika ry’ikigereranyo cy’ibinyabiziga bishya buri kwezi.Kubwibyo, buri gihembwe Calibre ikoreshwa mukubara ibinyabiziga bigenda byiyongera ku kigereranyo, ni ukuvuga igurishwa ry’ibinyabiziga bishya byongeweho ingufu: umubare w’ibirundo bishya byongeweho.Muri 2023Q1, igipimo gishya cyimodoka-yikirundo ni 2.5: 1, byerekana buhoro buhoro kugabanuka muri rusange.Muri byo, igipimo gishya cy’imodoka rusange n’ikirundo ni 9.8: 1, naho igipimo cy’imodoka gishya cyiyongereyeho ni 3.4: 1, nacyo kigaragaza iterambere ryinshi.icyerekezo.
1.3.Kubaka ibikoresho byo kwishyuza mumahanga ntabwo byuzuye, kandi ubushobozi bwo gukura ni bwinshi
1.3.1.Uburayi: Iterambere ryingufu nshya riratandukanye, ariko hariho icyuho cyo kwishyuza ibirundo
Imodoka nshya zingufu muburayi ziratera imbere byihuse kandi zifite umuvuduko mwinshi.Uburayi ni kamwe mu turere duha agaciro kanini kurengera ibidukikije ku isi.Bitewe na politiki n'amabwiriza, inganda nshya z’ibinyabiziga by’ingufu z’i Burayi ziratera imbere byihuse kandi umuvuduko w’ingufu nshya ni mwinshi.Yageze kuri 21.2%.
Ikigereranyo cy’imodoka n’ibirundo mu Burayi ni kinini, kandi hari icyuho kinini mu bikoresho byo kwishyuza.Nk’uko imibare ya IEA ibigaragaza, ikigereranyo cy’ibirundo rusange by’ibinyabiziga mu Burayi kizaba hafi 14.4: 1 mu 2022, muri byo ibirundo by’amashanyarazi byihuta bingana na 13% gusa.Nubwo isoko ry’ibinyabiziga bishya by’iburayi bitera imbere byihuse, iyubakwa ry’ibikoresho byo kwishyiriraho rihuye n’inyuma, kandi hariho ibibazo nkibikoresho bike byo kwishyuza ndetse n’umuvuduko mwinshi wo kwishyuza.
Iterambere ry’ingufu nshya ntirisanzwe mu bihugu by’Uburayi, kandi ikigereranyo cy’imodoka rusange n’ibirundo nacyo kiratandukanye.Ku bijyanye no kugabana, Noruveje na Suwede bifite umuvuduko mwinshi w’ingufu nshya, bigera kuri 73.5% na 49.1% mu 2022, kandi ikigereranyo cy’imodoka rusange n’ibirundo mu bihugu byombi nacyo kiri hejuru ugereranyije n’uburayi, kigera kuri 32.8: 1 na 25.0 uko bikurikirana: 1.
Ubudage, Ubwongereza, n'Ubufaransa nibyo bihugu bigurisha imodoka nini mu Burayi, kandi igipimo cy’ingufu nshya nacyo kiri hejuru.Mu 2022, igipimo gishya cy’ingufu zinjira mu Budage, mu Bwongereza, no mu Bufaransa kizagera kuri 28.2%, 20.3%, na 17.3%, naho ibipimo rusange by’ibinyabiziga rusange bizaba 24.5: 1, 18.8: 1, na 11.8 : 1.
Ku bijyanye na politiki, Umuryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’i Burayi n’ibihugu byinshi by’Uburayi byashyizeho gahunda yo gushimangira cyangwa kwishyuza politiki y’inkunga ijyanye no kubaka ibikoresho byo kwishyuza hagamijwe iterambere ry’ibikoresho byishyurwa.
1.3.2.Amerika: Ibikoresho byo kwishyuza bigomba gutezwa imbere byihutirwa, kandi leta ninganda zikorana
Nka rimwe mu masoko manini y’imodoka ku isi, Amerika yateye imbere gahoro mu bijyanye n’ingufu nshya kurusha Ubushinwa n’Uburayi.Muri 2022, kugurisha ibinyabiziga bishya byingufu bizarenga miliyoni 1, aho byinjira hafi 7.0%.
Muri icyo gihe, iterambere ry’isoko rusange ryishyuza ibirundo muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika naryo riratinda, kandi ibikoresho byo kwishyuza rusange ntabwo byuzuye.Mu 2022, ikigereranyo cy’imodoka rusange n’ibirundo muri Amerika kizaba 23.1: 1, muri byo ibirundo rusange byishyurwa byihuse bingana na 21.9%.
Amerika na Leta zimwe na zimwe zasabye kandi politiki yo gukangura ibikoresho byo kwishyuza, harimo n'umushinga wa Leta zunze ubumwe z'Amerika wo kubaka ibirundo 500.000 by'amadorari angana na miliyari 7.5.Amafaranga ashobora kugera kuri leta muri gahunda ya NEVI ni miliyoni 615 z'amadolari muri FY 2022 na miliyoni 885 z'amadolari muri FY 2023. Birakwiye ko tumenya ko ibirundo byo kwishyuza bitabira umushinga wa guverinoma nkuru y’Amerika bigomba gukorerwa muri Amerika (harimo n’ibikorwa byo gukora nk'amazu n'iteraniro), kandi muri Nyakanga 2024, byibuze 55% y'ibiciro byose bigize ibice bigomba kuva muri Amerika.
Usibye gushimangira politiki, kwishyuza ibigo by’ibirundo hamwe n’amasosiyete y’imodoka byateje imbere cyane iyubakwa ry’ibikorwa byo kwishyuza, harimo na Tesla yafunguye igice cy’urusobe rwishyuza, hamwe na ChargePoint, BP n’andi masosiyete y’imodoka bafatanya mu kohereza no kubaka ibirundo.
Amasosiyete menshi yishyuza ibirundo ku isi nayo ashora imari muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika gushinga icyicaro gishya, ibikoresho cyangwa imirongo ikora kugirango ikore ibirundo byo kwishyuza muri Amerika.
2. Hamwe niterambere ryihuse ryinganda, mumahanga yishyuza ibicuruzwa byo hanze biroroshye guhinduka
2.1.Inzitizi yo gukora iri muburyo bwo kwishyuza, kandi inzitizi yo kujya mumahanga iri mubyemezo bisanzwe
2.1.1.Ikirundo cya AC gifite inzitizi nke, kandi intandaro ya DC ikirundo ni module yo kwishyuza
Inzitizi zo gukora za AC zishyuza ibirundo ziri hasi, hamwe na module yo kwishyuza muriDC kwishyuza ibirundoni Ibyingenzi.Duhereye ku ihame ry'imikorere n'imiterere yabyo, guhindura AC / DC ibinyabiziga bishya byingufu bigaragazwa nubushakashatsi bwimbere mu modoka mugihe cyo kwishyuza AC, bityo imiterere yikirundo cyumuriro wa AC iroroshye kandi igiciro ni gito .Mu kwishyuza DC, inzira yo guhindura kuva AC ikagera kuri DC igomba kurangizwa imbere yikirundo cyumuriro, bityo rero igomba kugerwaho nuburyo bwo kwishyuza.Module yo kwishyuza igira ingaruka kumuzunguruko, imikorere numutekano wikirundo cyose.Nibintu byingenzi bigize DC yishyuza ikirundo hamwe nikimwe mubice bifite inzitizi zubuhanga buhanitse.Kwishyuza abatanga module harimo Huawei, Infy power, Sinexcel, nibindi.
2.1.2.Gutsindira ibyemezo bisanzwe mumahanga nibisabwa mubucuruzi bwo hanze
Inzitizi zimpamyabumenyi zibaho kumasoko yo hanze.Ubushinwa, Uburayi, na Amerika byatanze ibipimo ngenderwaho bijyanye no kwishyuza ibirundo, kandi gutanga ibyemezo ni ngombwa kugira ngo byinjire ku isoko.Ibipimo by’Ubushinwa birimo CQC, nibindi, ariko nta bipimo byemewe byemewe kugeza ubu.Ibipimo byemeza muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika harimo UL, FCC, Inyenyeri y’ingufu, nibindi. Ibipimo byimpamyabumenyi mu muryango w’ubumwe bw’ibihugu by’Uburayi ni ibyemezo bya CE, kandi ibihugu bimwe by’Uburayi na byo byashyizeho ibipimo by’ibyemezo bigabanijwe.Muri rusange, ingorane zo kwemeza ni Amerika> Uburayi> Ubushinwa.
2.2.Imbere mu Gihugu: Kwibanda cyane kubikorwa birangira, guhatana gukaze murwego rwose, no gukura kwumwanya
Ubwinshi bwabakozi bashinzwe kwishyuza ibirundo murugo ni hejuru cyane, kandi hariho abanywanyi benshi murwego rwo kwishyuza ikirundo, kandi imiterere iratatanye.Urebye kwishyuza abakora ibirundo, Terefone na Xingxing Kwishyura bingana na 40% byisoko rusange ryishyuza rusange, kandi isoko ryibanze cyane, CR5 = 69.1%, CR10 = 86.9%, muribo isoko rusange ya DC ikirundo CR5 = 80.7%, Isoko rusange ryitumanaho ryikirundo CR5 = 65.8%.Urebye isoko yose kuva hasi kugeza hejuru, abakora ibikorwa bitandukanye nabo bakoze imiterere itandukanye, nka Terefone, Kwishyuza Xingxing, nibindi, bashira hejuru no kumanuka kumurongo winganda harimo nibikorwa byose, kandi hariho nibindi nka Kwishyuza Xiaoju, Kwishyuza Igicu Byihuse, nibindi bifata urumuri Icyitegererezo cyumutungo gitanga igice cyagatatu cyo kwishyiriraho sitasiyo yumushinga wose cyangwa uwukora.Hariho abakora ibicuruzwa byinshi mubushinwa.Usibye uburyo bwo guhuza vertical verisiyo nka Terefone hamwe ninyenyeri yishyuza, imiterere yikirundo cyose iratatanye.
Umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa mu gihugu cyanjye biteganijwe ko uzagera kuri miliyoni 7,6 mu 2030. Urebye iterambere ry’inganda nshya z’imodoka z’ingufu z’igihugu cyanjye ndetse na gahunda ya politiki y’igihugu, intara n’imijyi, bivugwa ko mu 2025 na 2030, umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa mubushinwa bizagera kuri miliyoni 4.4 na miliyoni 7,6, naho 2022-2025E na 2025E CAGR ya -2030E ni 35.7% na 11,6%.Muri icyo gihe, igipimo cy’ibirundo rusange byihuta mu birundo rusange nacyo kizagenda cyiyongera buhoro buhoro.Bigereranijwe ko mu 2030, 47.4% y’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa bizaba byishyurwa byihuse, bikarushaho kunoza uburambe bwabakoresha.
2.3.Uburayi: Kubaka ibirundo byo kwishyuza birihuta, kandi umubare wibirundo byihuta byiyongera
Dufashe Ubwongereza nk'urugero, kwibanda ku isoko yo kwishyuza abakoresha ibirundo biri munsi y'Ubushinwa.Nka kimwe mu bihugu bikomeye by’ingufu by’Uburayi, umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa mu Bwongereza bizagera kuri 9.9% mu 2022. Ukurikije uko Abongereza bishyuza isoko ry’ibirundo, isoko rusange muri rusange riri munsi y’isoko ry’Ubushinwa .Mumasoko rusange yishyuza ikirundo, ubitricity, Pod Point, bp pulse, nibindi bifite umugabane mwinshi mwisoko, CR5 = 45.3%.Ibirundo byihuta byihuta hamwe nibirundo byihuta byishyurwa Muri byo, InstaVolt, bp pulse, na Tesla Supercharger (harimo ifunguye na Tesla yihariye) byari hejuru ya 10%, na CR5 = 52.7%.Kuruhande rwose rwo gukora ibirundo, abakinyi bakomeye mumasoko barimo ABB, Siemens, Schneider nibindi bihangange mu nganda mubijyanye n’amashanyarazi, ndetse n’amasosiyete y’ingufu amenya imiterere y’inganda zishyuza ibicuruzwa binyuze mu kugura ibintu.Kurugero, BP yaguze imwe mu masosiyete manini y’amashanyarazi yishyuza amashanyarazi mu Bwongereza mu 2018. 1. Chargemaster na Shell babonye ubitricity hamwe n’abandi mu 2021 (BP na Shell byombi ni ibihangange mu nganda za peteroli).
Mu 2030, biteganijwe ko umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa mu Burayi biteganijwe ko uzagera kuri miliyoni 2.38, kandi umubare w’ibirundo byihuta bizakomeza kwiyongera.Dukurikije ibigereranyo, mu 2025 na 2030, umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa mu Burayi bizagera kuri miliyoni 1.2 na miliyoni 2.38, naho CAGR yo muri 2022-2025E na 2025E-2030E izaba 32.8% na 14.7%.iziganje, ariko igipimo cyibintu byihuta byishyurwa rusange nabyo biriyongera.Bigereranijwe ko mu 2030, 20.2% by ibirundo rusange byishyurwa bizaba byishyurwa byihuse.
2.4.Amerika: Umwanya w'isoko uroroshye guhinduka, kandi ibirango byaho byiganje
Kwishyiriraho isoko ryumurongo wibicuruzwa muri Reta zunzubumwe zamerika birarenze ibyo mubushinwa nu Burayi, kandi ibicuruzwa byaho byiganje.Urebye umubare wurubuga rwishyuza, ChargePoint ifata umwanya wambere hamwe nijanisha rya 54.9%, ikurikirwa na Tesla hamwe na 10.9% (harimo urwego rwa 2 na DC yihuta), ikurikirwa na Blink na SemaCharge, nabo ni ibigo byabanyamerika.Urebye umubare wishyuza ibyambu bya EVSE, ChargePoint iracyari hejuru yandi masosiyete, bingana na 39.3%, ikurikirwa na Tesla, igera kuri 23.2% (harimo urwego rwa 2 na DC yihuta), ikurikirwa n’amasosiyete menshi yo muri Amerika.
Mu 2030, biteganijwe ko umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa muri Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika uzagera kuri miliyoni 1.38, kandi umubare w’ibirundo byihuta bizakomeza kwiyongera.Dukurikije ibigereranyo, mu 2025 na 2030, umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa muri Leta zunze ubumwe z’Amerika uzagera kuri miliyoni 550.000 na miliyoni 1.38, naho CAGR yo muri 2022-2025E na 2025E-2030E izaba 62,6% na 20.2%.Kimwe nuko ibintu byifashe mu Burayi, ibirundo byo kwishyuza buhoro biracyafite ubwinshi, ariko igipimo cyibirundo byihuse bizakomeza gutera imbere.Bigereranijwe ko mu 2030, 27.5% by’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa bizaba byihuta.
2.5.Kubara Umwanya wo Kwisoko
Hashingiwe ku isesengura ryavuzwe haruguru ry’inganda zishyuza ibirundo rusange mu Bushinwa, mu Burayi, no muri Amerika, hafatwa ko umubare w’ibirundo rusange byishyurwa uziyongera kuri CAGR mu gihe cya 2022-2025E, n’umubare w’ibirundo bishya byo kwishyuza wongeyeho buri mwaka uzaboneka mugukuramo umubare wabyo.Ukurikije igiciro cyibicuruzwa, ibirundo byimbere mu gihugu byishyurwa igiciro cya 2000-4,000 yuan / set, naho ibiciro byamahanga ni 300-600 $ / gushiraho (ni ukuvuga 2,100-4,300 yuan / set).Igiciro cyibirundo byimbere mu gihugu 120kW ni 50.000-70.000 yuan / seti, mugihe igiciro cy’amahanga 50-350kW cyihuta cyihuta gishobora kugera ku 30.000-150.000 $ / gushiraho, naho igiciro cy’ibirundo 120kW byihuta ni 50.000 -60,000 by'amadolari / gushiraho.Biteganijwe ko mu 2025, isoko rusange ry’ibirundo byishyuza rusange mu Bushinwa, mu Burayi, no muri Amerika bizagera kuri miliyari 71.06.
3. Isesengura ryibigo byingenzi
Amasosiyete yo mu mahanga mu kwishyuza ibirundo birimo ChargePoint, EVBox, Blink, BP Pulse, Shell, ABB, Siemens, n'ibindi. Ibigo byo mu gihugu birimo Autel, Sinexcel,UBUSHINWA, TGOOD, Gresgying, nibindi Muri byo, amasosiyete yo mu kirundo yo mu gihugu nayo yateye imbere mu kujya mu mahanga.Kurugero, ibicuruzwa bimwe na bimwe bya CHINAEVSE byabonye UL, CSA, Ingufu zinyenyeri muri Amerika na CE, UKCA, icyemezo cya MID mubumwe bwi Burayi.CHINAEVSE yinjiye muri BP Urutonde rwo kwishyuza abatanga ibirundo nababikora.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-10-2023